Managed Migration as a Potential Component of “Hybrid” Conflicts
https://doi.org/10.56654/ROPI-2025-2(15)-102-121
Abstract
The object of the study is “hybrid warfare”, the subject of the study is controlled migration as a possible component of “hybrid” wars. The article analyzes the volume and dynamics of migration processes in the modern world and, in comparison with the main components of “hybrid” actions, based on a comprehensive analysis, it is concluded that these processes can potentially be components of a “hybrid” confrontation. Using the methods of analysis and generalization, the article draws conclusions about how managed migration can fit into the components of a “hybrid” confrontation.: informational, economic, organizational, and military. Based on this analysis, it is concluded that the potential use of managed migration can be quite effective, and the features of this process make it possible to logically fit into all aspects of the “hybrid” war. The article uses the following research methods: analysis of the content of historical and regulatory documents contained in the public domain, synthesis of conclusions and proposals on possible manifestations and counteraction to managed migration as an integral part of the “hybrid” confrontation. Based on the analysis of statistics, it is concluded that controlled migration, if used as a component of a “hybrid” confrontation, has a number of features that make it difficult to mitigate the consequences of its use. Such features of managed migration as the legality of the methods used, secrecy, focus on the future, the ability to self-develop the situation, the use of modern technologies to implement management and maintain the process are formulated. Taking into account these features, a generalized algorithm of possible counteraction based on a typical cycle of military operations management has been synthesized.
The novelty of the research lies in the fact that the author, within the framework of the article, formulated for the first time the task of solving the problem of countering managed migration, concluded that it was necessary to develop methods to counter this problem, and proposed general solutions.
About the Author
O. V. Tikhanychev
“T1” Group of companies
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Oleg V. Tikhanychev, CandSc (Tech.), Professor of Academy of Military Sciences, Deputy Head of the Department
Moscow
References
1. Bartosh, A.A. (2018), “Friction” and “wear and tear” of hybrid warfare. Military Thought. No. 1. pp. 5-13. (In Russian)
2. Bartosh, A.A. (2024), Escalation Models of Modern Military Conflicts. Military Thought. No. 1. pp. 21-36. (In Russian)
3. Bogatyrov, V.V. (2021), Problems of international legal regulation of modern hybrid wars. Bulletin of the Vladimir Law Institute. No. 2(59). pp. 34-38. (In Russian)
4. Dylevskiy, I.N., Shevchenko, A.L., Men’shikov, D.V., Komov, S.A. (2025), A Methodological Approach to Defining the Concept of “Armed Attack Using Information Technologies”. Military Thought. No. 3. pp. 127-133. (In Russian)
5. Zubov, V.V. (2019), The Interaction of the European Union and Turkey on the Problem of the Migration Crisis: Deep Contradictions as a Result of Changes in the Geopolitical Realities. Humanities and Social Sciences. Bulletin of the Financial University. No. 9(4). pp. 78-82. DOI: 10.26794/2226-7867-2019-9-4-78-82. (In Russian)
6. Il’nitskiy, A.M. (2021), Russia’s Mental War. Military thought. No. 8. pp. 9-33. (In Russian)
7. Litvinov, N.D., Rodionov, D.A., Khabibulin, A.G. (2023), Criminal migration of participants in hybrid war structures across the state border and territories of the Russian Empire. Migration Law. No. 1. pp. 2-8. (In Russian)
8. Manoylo, A.V. (2015), Color revolutions in the context of hybrid wars. Law and Politics. No. 10. pp. 1400-1405. (In Russian)
9. Manoylo, A.V. (2022), Information sabotage in the conflict in Ukraine. Bulletin of Moscow State Regional University. No. 4. URL: https://doi.org/10.18384/2224-0209-2022-4-1130. (In Russian)
10. Mel’nikov, E.A. (2025), Legal support for combating illegal migration. Migration law. No. 1. pp. 15-17. DOI 10.18572/2071-1182-2025-1-15- 17. (In Russian)
11. Mitrofanova, E.S., Vasin, S.A., Shcherbakova, E.M. (2022), Population of Russia 2019: twenty-seventh annual demographic report. Ed. Zakharov S.V. Moscow, NIU VSHE Publ. DOI: 10.17323/978-5-7598-2554-8. (In Russian)
12. Tikhanychev, O.V., Tikhanycheva, E.O. (2016), Some aspects of modeling ethnosocial processes. Scientific and theoretical work. Moscow, Editus Publ. (In Russian)
13. Tikhanychev, O.V. (2025), History of the development of “hybrid” actions from “false flag” wars to “smart power”. National Security / nota bene. No. 1. pp. 77-102. DOI: 10.7256/2454-0668.2025.1.39475. (In Russian)
14. Boda, M. (2024), Hybrid War: Theory and Ethics. Academic and Applied Research in Military and Public Management Science. No. 23. pp. 5-17. DOI: 510.32565/aarms.2024.1.
15. Caliskan, M. (2019), Hybrid warfare through the lens of strategic theory. Defense & Security Analysis. No. 35. pp. 40-58.
16. Fox, A. C., Rossow, A. J. (2017), Making. Sense of Russian Hybrid Warfare: A Brief Assessment of the Russo–Ukrainian War. The Land Warfare Papers. No.112. p. 3.
17. Harsin, J. (2015), Regimes of Posttruth, Postpolitics, and Attention Economies. Communication, Culture & Critique. No.8(2). pp. 327-333.
18. McDermott, R. N. (2017), Russia’s Electronic Warfare Capabilities to 2025: Challenging NATO in the Electromagnetic Spectrum. International Centre for Defense and Security (ICDS). http://www.jstor.org/stable/resrep54439.
19. Williamson M., Mansoor, P. R. (2012), Hybrid Warfare: Fighting Complex Opponents from the Ancient World to the Present. Cambridge University Press.
Review
For citations:
Tikhanychev O.V. Managed Migration as a Potential Component of “Hybrid” Conflicts. Russia: Society, Politics, History. 2025;(2(15)):102-121. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.56654/ROPI-2025-2(15)-102-121
Views:
17
Email this article 