The 2030 Russian Presidential Election: A Matrix Analysis of Hypothetical Scenarios for Candidate Nomination and Election Outcomes
https://doi.org/10.56654/ROPI-2026-1(18)-88-129
Abstract
This article examines potential scenarios for the candidacies’ nomination in the upcoming 2030 Presidential Election of the Russian Federation. The authors analyze the architecture of the political process through the lens of the country’s political elite. Based on comparative analysis, hypothetical models of candidate nomination are formulated, examined through the prism of succession strategy. The research is prognostic in nature and relies on open sources. The methodological foundation is the authors’ proprietary matrix model, the “Matrix of Russia’s Political Prospects,” which enables a structured comparison of political figures against key criteria. The study is of a predictive nature and is based on open sources. The methodological basis is the author’s matrix model “Matrix reflecting the political perspective of the Russian Federation,” which allows for a structured comparison of political figures based on the key criteria introduced by the authors. The theological perspective on this issue is observed as well in the presented study. The main conclusions of the study are distilled into two fundamental scenarios. The most probable is recognized as the scenario involving the participation and victory of the current President of the Russian Federation, V.V. Putin, which ensures maximum stability of the political course. The alternative scenario considers a possible transfer of power, analyzing key representatives of the political elite as potential candidates: M.V. Mishustin, D.A. Medvedev, A.R. Belousov, A.G. Dyumin, S.V. Kiriyenko, L.E. Slutsky, A.G. Nechaev, and S.A. Gavrilov.
About the Authors
V. Y. Bauer
Institute of Public Administration and Civil Service of Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Veronica Y. Bauer, Curator of the program “Internal Policy and Political Technologies” of the Faculty of Public and Municipal
Moscow
V. A. Pyzin
Institute of Public Administration and Civil Service of Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Vladimir A. Pyzin, CandSc (Soc.), Director of Center of electoral technologies, scientific director of the School of Political Professionology, author and head of the program “Internal Policy and Leadership”
Moscow
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Review
For citations:
Bauer V.Y., Pyzin V.A. The 2030 Russian Presidential Election: A Matrix Analysis of Hypothetical Scenarios for Candidate Nomination and Election Outcomes. Russia: Society, Politics, History. 2026;(1(18)):88-129. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.56654/ROPI-2026-1(18)-88-129
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